Stephen S. Roach, un cunoscut economist american,
a publicat un studiu prin care enumera principiile care au stat la baza prosperitatii chineze. Se pare ca un atu este independenta fata de SUA si Occident,
acest lucru a ferit China
de fluctuatiile financiare si recesiunea care a marcat intreaga lume.
1. Strategia: Incepand cu anul 1953, China a respectat cu sfintenie faimoasele "planuri cincinale", care au fost realist construite, bine definite, care au dat rezultate pe termen mediu si lung. Cel mai recent plan - cel de-al 12-lea - face o turnura strategica si se indreapta catre o prospera societate de consum.
2. Devotamentul si stabilitatea: Pentru ca poporul chinez a invatat din trecutul sau, experienta "revolutiei culturale" i-a tinut pe conducatorii chinezi pe un drum foarte stabil, iar acest lucru i-a ajutat sa ramana in afara "bulelor de sapun" aduse odata cu venirea crizei in 2008-2009. Astfel chinezii nu au cunoscut involutia economica, ci au mers doar pe +, din punct de vedere financiar.
3. Dinamism si eficienta: China a fost o societate care a acceptat cu bratele deschise provocarile. Astfel, constienti de faptul ca orice provocare dusa la bun sfarsit este un pas spre progres, in 30 de ani China a imbinat dinamismul cu eficienta ajungand astfel la o reteta de succes.China a demonstrat ca tine in maini fraiele stabilitatii, iar in ceea ce priveste criza, poate sa schimbe cursul istoriei din punct de vedere economic.
4. China, "bunul gospodar": Chinezii au stiut cum sa tina sub control valul "bulelor de sapun". Nu au lasat populatia sa se indatoreze excesiv, iar astfel a redus cheltuielile interne cu 50%. Chinezii si-au dat seama ca un pas spre o dezvoltare echidistanta sunt investitiile, iar prin acest mod au protejat economia de socurile externe, in favoarea activitatii din interiorul tarii.
5. Migratia rural-urban: In ultimii 30 de ani "orasenii" s-au dublat, si asta pentru ca s-a incurajat migratia din zonele rurale, in marile orase, punandu-se astfel accent pe dezvoltarea industriilor. Potrivit noilor statistici, in urmatoarele doua decenii aproximativ 300 de milioane de oameni se vor muta de la sate la oras, dezvoltandu-se astfel toate laturile economiei.
7. Servicii: Si la capitoul servicii, chinezii sunt cu mult in spatele tarilor dezvoltate. Astfel, serviciile reprezinta 43% din Produsul Intern Brut. Din nou si dezvoltarea acestui capitol este trecuta in planul cincinal, dorindu-se o dezvoltare in domeniile: transporturi, logistica, turism.
8. Investitii straine: Fiind cea mai populata tara din lume, China este un magnet pentru cei care vor sa investeasca. Este ca o mina de aur pentru oamenii cu viziune in afaceri. Astfel, China, prin prezenta investitorilor, isi asigura locuri de munca, somajul nefiind o problema. China este fruntasa in ceea ce priveste tehnologia, care este adusa de investitorii straini. Astfel, orientarea spre consumerism va stimula serviciile, fapt ce va duce la o reasezare a lucrurilor pe plan intern.
9. Educatia: Rata adultilor care au terminat o scoala este astazi in China de 95%, iar cei care au studii medii sunt aproape 80% din totalul populatiei. Potrivit standardelor PISA, elevii de 15 ani din Shanghai au fost recent clasati pe primul loc la matematica iar, din universitatile chineze, ies anual peste 1.5 milioane ingineri si cercetatori.
10. Cercetarea: Inovatiile au adus China pe podium in 2009, inregistrand 280.000 de patente, situandu-se insa dupa Japonia si SUA. Asa ca planul este ca pana in 2015 sa se aloce pentru cercetare 2,5% din PIB, ceea ce este dublu fata de cat s-a alocat in 2002.
Stephen S. Roach
NEW HAVEN – The China doubters are back in force. They seem to come in waves – every few years, or so. Yet, year in and year out, China has defied the naysayers and stayed the course, perpetuating the most spectacular development miracle of modern times. That seems likely to continue.
There is a kernel of truth to many of the concerns cited above, especially with respect to the current inflation problem. But they stem largely from misplaced generalizations. Here are ten reasons why it doesn’t pay to diagnose the Chinese economy by drawing inferences from the experiences of others:
Strategy. Since 1953, China has framed its macro objectives in the context of five-year plans, with clearly defined targets and policy initiatives designed to hit those targets. The recently enacted 12th Five-Year Plan could well be a strategic turning point – ushering in a shift from the highly successful producer model of the past 30 years to a flourishing consumer society.
Commitment. Seared by memories of turmoil, reinforced by the Cultural Revolution of the 1970’s, China’s leadership places the highest priority on stability. Such a commitment served China extremely well in avoiding collateral damage from the crisis of 2008-2009. It stands to play an equally important role in driving the fight against inflation, asset bubbles, and deteriorating loan quality.
Wherewithal to deliver. China’s commitment to stability has teeth. More than 30 years of reform have unlocked its economic dynamism. Enterprise and financial-market reforms have been key, and many more reforms are coming. Moreover, China has shown itself to be a good learner from past crises, and shifts course when necessary.
Saving. A domestic saving rate in excess of 50% has served China well. It funded the investment imperatives of economic development and boosted the cushion of foreign-exchange reserves that has shielded China from external shocks. China now stands ready to absorb some of that surplus saving to promote a shift toward internal demand.
Rural-urban migration. Over the past 30 years, the urban share of the Chinese population has risen from 20% to 46%. According to OECD estimates, another 316 million people should move from the countryside to China’s cities over the next 20 years. Such an unprecedented wave of urbanization provides solid support for infrastructure investment and commercial and residential construction activity. Fears of excess investment and “ghost cities” fixate on the supply side, without giving due weight to burgeoning demand.
Low-hanging fruit – Consumption. Private consumption accounts for only about 37% of China’s GDP – the smallest share of any major economy. By focusing on job creation, wage increases, and the social safety net, the 12th Five-Year Plan could spark a major increase in discretionary consumer purchasing power. That could lead to as much as a five-percentage-point increase in China’s consumption share by 2015.
Low-hanging fruit – Services. Services account for just 43% of Chinese GDP – well below global norms. Services are an important piece of China’s pro-consumption strategy – especially large-scale transactions-based industries such as distribution (wholesale and retail), domestic transportation, supply-chain logistics, and hospitality and leisure. Over the next five years, the services share of Chinese GDP could rise above the currently targeted four-percentage-point increase. This is a labor-intensive, resource-efficient, environmentally-friendly growth recipe – precisely what China needs in the next phase of its development.
Foreign direct investment. Modern China has long been a magnet for global multinational corporations seeking both efficiency and a toehold in the world’s most populous market. Such investments provide China with access to modern technologies and management systems – a catalyst to economic development. China’s upcoming pro-consumption rebalancing implies a potential shift in FDI – away from manufacturing toward services – that could propel growth further.
Education. China has taken enormous strides in building human capital. The adult literacy rate is now almost 95%, and secondary school enrollment rates are up to 80%. Shanghai’s 15-year-old students were recently ranked first globally in math and reading as per the standardized PISA metric. Chinese universities now graduate more than 1.5 million engineers and scientists annually. The country is well on its way to a knowledge-based economy.
Innovation. In 2009, about 280,000 domestic patent applications were filed in China, placing it third globally, behind Japan and the United States. China is fourth and rising in terms of international patent applications. At the same time, China is targeting a research-and-development share of GDP of 2.2% by 2015 – double the ratio in 2002. This fits with the 12th Five-Year Plan’s new focus on innovation-based “strategic emerging industries” – energy conservation, new-generation information technology, biotechnology, high-end equipment manufacturing, renewable energy, alternative materials, and autos running on alternative fuels. Currently, these seven industries account for 3% of Chinese GDP; the government is targeting a 15% share by 2020, a significant move up the value chain.
Yale historian Jonathan Spence has long cautioned that the West tends to view China through the same lens as it sees itself. Today’s cottage industry of China doubters is a case in point. Yes, by our standards, China’s imbalances are unstable and unsustainable. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has, in fact, gone public with a similar critique.
But that’s why China is so different. It actually takes these concerns seriously. Unlike the West, where the very concept of strategy has become an oxymoron, China has embraced a transitional framework aimed at resolving its sustainability constraints. Moreover, unlike the West, which is trapped in a dysfunctional political quagmire, China has both the commitment and the wherewithal to deliver on that strategy. This is not a time to bet against China.
Stephen S. Roach, a member of the faculty at Yale University, is Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of The Next Asia.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.
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Invatam noi ceva, din acest miraculos exemplu?
Nu, nu cred!
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